I guess if we really looked at what we're doing we can say our goal is to predict the emini future. We have a task to perform day in and day out that no one in our past has been able to do. It's an area of confusion that some claim to contain while others never attempt. Are we really any different? Do we actually know the future?
Well the short answer is a resounding "NO", but with a twist. There aren't many areas in our lives where a steady record of historical emotional cues is at our finger tips. Even with the advent of the internet it would be hard to find accurate data for certain human situations. For example, how many times an active walker tripped and fell over a rock, then decided to keep it in mind next time they approached that same rock. If we thought about this growing up we may have an idea of how our immediate family would react and even ourselves quite well, but do we really know anything?
Not really if you ask me. I look at the emini markets though and I see data that shows me the actions of every participant. Everyday you'll have a mixture of first timers, the in between-er's and the professionals continuing the same battles from the morning session through the afternoon session. So "Where is the edge coming from?" you're probably asking. Well for me I look at what I believe a typical first time trader may be thinking.
The first time trader may continue to make the same mistakes over and over until they can't trade anymore or they reach the next "in between-er" level. They start to realize that they can take advantage of the emini trader whom they once were.
Some may have gone in on their first emini trade and made an excellent trade then the next 4 were big losers. Were these next 4 trades really the trades you should have been after or was the first the right call? Though it sounds a bit unfair I feel my opportunities are aligned with showing a new trader the growing pains that any trader goes through. As I said before, some will be able to hang while others may not last long. That's simply the nature of the markets in my eyes and without this "life cycle" how would it last. Not everyone can be right or no one would win.
So I say that at best you should always take advantage of your previous knowledge of common pit falls. Don't forget your own addition to the historical data that we use to predict the future. Think about the rug pull or bait and switch that price used to catch you with and be a part of that "rug pull".
FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.